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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, following two months of softening. Consumers grew more pessimistic about current business and labor conditions and the next six months, while inflation expectations and expectations for higher interest rates rose.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September from 88.6 in August, as consumers reported weaker views of current business and labor conditions and a poorer six-month outlook. The decline matters to retailers and other businesses because it signals more cautious consumer sentiment, though the survey does not measure actual spending.
The Present Situation Index, which tracks assessments of current business and labor market conditions, fell 7.9 points to 109.3. Consumers’ net assessment of current business conditions dropped 3.4 percentage points to minus 1.9%, meaning the share describing conditions as good was smaller than the share describing them as bad. The report said the change was largely driven by more respondents saying conditions were bad. This marked the first negative reading for current business appraisals since September 2024.
Views of the labor market also softened. The difference between consumers saying jobs were plentiful and those saying jobs were hard to get declined 2.5 percentage points to plus 1.7%, remaining in positive territory. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ outlook for income, business and labor conditions over the next six months, fell 5.9 points to 63.6. It was the index’s third consecutive monthly decline.
All three components of the Expectations Index worsened. Net expectations for business conditions fell 3.2 percentage points to minus 9.5%, and labor market expectations fell 3.1 points to minus 14.4%. Income expectations declined 3.0 points to plus 2.5%, staying positive but indicating less optimism. The survey also found average and median 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 points to 6.1% and 5.1%, respectively. The share expecting interest rates to rise over the next year increased 5.2 points to 68.4%.
Weaker Outlook Raises Spending Questions
The September results point to a broader pullback in sentiment: both consumers’ assessment of the present and their expectations for the coming six months declined. For businesses, especially retailers, weaker confidence may be relevant to planning because households that feel less secure about jobs, business conditions or income could become more cautious. The index alone, however, does not establish that consumers have reduced purchases or show how much spending may change.
Rising inflation expectations and a larger share expecting higher interest rates add to the concerns reflected in the survey. Those responses capture what consumers anticipate, not future inflation or an actual interest-rate decision. The report provides a snapshot of views gathered during the survey period; it does not identify how much each economic issue contributed to the decline.
Three Months of Softer Confidence
The September fall followed two prior months of softening, according to Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. The Expectations Index has now declined for three consecutive months. The latest preliminary survey covered September 1-23 and, according to the report, included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
On a six-month moving-average basis, confidence trended downward across all age groups and nearly all income groups. Higher-income consumers remained generally more optimistic, while households earning $125,000 to $149,000 reported the largest confidence decline over that six-month measure. Consumers still largely expected stock prices to rise over the next 12 months, although that optimism moderated in September.
Survey Sentiment Leaves Spending Unknown
The September figures are preliminary survey results and reflect responses collected from September 1 through 23. The report does not quantify whether the decline will lead to lower household spending, nor does it identify the precise contribution of the rate hike, geopolitical tensions or other factors to the results. It also does not establish whether consumers’ inflation and interest-rate expectations will match later outcomes.
Upcoming Data May Clarify Demand
The next useful evidence will come from subsequent confidence readings and data on actual household spending, employment and prices. Those measures can help show whether September’s weaker sentiment persists and whether it is accompanied by changes in consumer activity. The September report itself does not give a forecast for future retail sales or specify a date for any follow-up findings.
Key Questions
How much did consumer confidence fall in September?
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August to 81.9 in September.
Which part of the index fell the most?
The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index dropped 5.9 points to 63.6 and marked its third consecutive monthly decline.
What did consumers expect for inflation?
Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, while the median rose 0.3 points to 5.1%, according to the report.
Does the index show that consumers spent less?
No. The index reports survey responses about confidence and expectations. It does not measure actual purchases or confirm that spending fell.
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