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The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Summit in Minneapolis examined economic pressures, customer decisions, AI and industry data. HIRI forecast 2.5% growth in the home improvement products market in current dollars for 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit brought industry leaders to Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to discuss economic conditions, customer behavior, artificial intelligence and market data. HIRI’s forecast presented at the event projected 2.5% growth in home improvement products sales in current dollars in 2026, alongside a 1.5% decline after inflation, underscoring the difference between nominal sales growth and real market performance.
The summit organized its sessions around five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending, and sales channels. Speakers addressed how affordability, inflation, mortgage rates and income shape decisions by homebuyers and homeowners, as well as how professionals and digital tools influence product recommendations.
Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the National Association of Home Builders, discussed economic pressures affecting homebuilding and homebuying. She noted that the median age of a first-time homebuyer is now 40, compared with 29 in 1981. The summit report also described a discussion among HIRI’s Dave King, OpenBrand chief economist Ralph McLaughlin and S&P Global director Michael Zdinak about affordability, mortgage rates and income. The supplied recap does not give detailed findings from that panel.
Contractor sentiment and homeowner use of AI featured in separate presentations. Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented results from the Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The index put contractors’ confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman presented research showing 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation; the report said 25% of renovation dollars are in households using AI to help.
What AI and Inflation Mean for Sales
The forecast’s two measures tell different stories for retailers, manufacturers and contractors. Current-dollar growth of 2.5% reflects sales value before adjusting for inflation, while HIRI’s estimate of a 1.5% inflation-adjusted contraction points to a smaller market in real terms. The figures suggest that apparent revenue growth does not necessarily mean customers are buying more products or completing more work. The source recap does not provide the forecast’s detailed assumptions or category-level breakdown.
AI adoption is another signal for businesses deciding how to reach customers. The figures presented by Houzz indicate that AI tools are being used by some renovation households, with a share of renovation spending associated with those users. They do not, on their own, establish that AI caused the spending or improved project outcomes. For companies, the practical question raised at the summit is how digital recommendations fit into the customer journey alongside advice from contractors, retailers and trusted media brands.
For contractors, the 8.2 out of 10 confidence score offers a measure of near-term sentiment, not a guarantee of future business. Taken together, the sessions highlight competing pressures: a challenging inflation-adjusted market outlook, continuing interest in home projects and changes in how customers seek guidance.
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Five Themes Framed the Summit
The Minneapolis event was organized by HIRI, which researches the home improvement industry. Its 2026 summit brought together business leaders and industry professionals to review current data and discuss factors affecting manufacturers, contractors, retailers and homeowners. Rather than focusing on one product category, the program covered the broader market, including economic conditions and how customers move from project planning to purchase.
Economic context was linked to changes in housing access. Nanayakkara-Skillington’s comparison of first-time buyer ages—40 in the current figure, versus 29 in 1981—provided one measure of how the homebuying landscape has changed. Other speakers considered affordability, rates and income, though the source recap does not include specific mortgage-rate figures or a breakdown of their individual effects.
The summit also connected consumer trust with the customer journey. Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, discussed the brand’s approach to remaining relevant: educating audiences first, avoiding mistakes and not appearing transactional. HIRI president Dave King referenced the institute’s Q3 2026 Size of the Home Improvement Products Market Report and Forecast and urged manufacturers to reduce uncertainty for customers in the coming quarter.
“Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.”
— HIRI president Dave King, as quoted in the summit recap
Forecast Details Still Unspecified
The summit recap gives HIRI’s headline market estimates but does not describe the forecast’s assumptions, confidence range, product categories or how it compares with an earlier forecast. It is also not clear from the recap how HIRI calculated the inflation adjustment. The 2.5% growth and 1.5% decline should therefore be read as separate reported projections, not as a complete account of sales volumes or company performance.
The AI figures are attributed to Houzz’s 2026 research, but the source material does not state the survey size, field dates, definition of AI use or whether the 25% figure refers to spending by households using AI rather than spending caused by AI. The reported 8.2 contractor confidence score likewise has no sample size or margin of error in the recap. The figures provide indicators discussed at the event, but their methods and limits are not detailed in the supplied report.
Industry Faces the Next Quarter
HIRI’s immediate message to manufacturers was to reduce uncertainty for customers in the coming quarter. The summit recap does not identify a specific follow-up policy, product launch or new data release tied to that advice. Companies and industry observers will be watching whether the forecast’s projected inflation-adjusted contraction is reflected in later market data and whether contractor confidence translates into booked work.
Further detail may come from HIRI’s market reports and subsequent contractor sentiment updates, as well as from expanded research on homeowner AI use. Until those data are available, the summit figures offer a snapshot of forecasts and attitudes presented in late September 2026, rather than confirmation of how the full year will finish.
Key Questions
What did HIRI forecast for the home improvement products market in 2026?
HIRI projected 2.5% growth in current dollars and a 1.5% decline after inflation. The summit recap does not provide the forecast assumptions or category-level details.
What did the summit report about AI and renovation?
Houzz’s 2026 research, presented by Liza Hausman, found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation. The recap also said 25% of renovation dollars are in households that use AI to help; it does not establish that AI caused that spending.
How confident were contractors about future business?
The Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3 2026 put contractor confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. The source recap does not provide the survey’s sample size or margin of error.
What economic factors were discussed?
Speakers addressed inflation, affordability, mortgage rates and income as factors affecting homebuilding, homebuying and customer decisions. The recap does not include specific rate figures or quantify each factor’s effect.
What did HIRI tell manufacturers to do?
HIRI president Dave King urged manufacturers to take uncertainty out of customers’ decisions in the coming quarter. The recap does not specify particular products or measures for doing so.
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